2024 NFL Team Strength & Forecast

Week 18 Results

This modeling project calculates weekly-updating Team Strength scores for teams in the NFL by analyzing not just how many games each team has won/lost but which opponents teams have won/lost to.

This project uses a "maximum likelihood" model to assign a strength score between 1 and 100 to every team, adjusting the scores to fit best with the actual records of head-to-head wins and losses. Beating a great team or losing to a bad one will shift these scores the most, while an "expected" result moves the needle less. With strength of schedule varying significantly between teams - especially partway through seasons - this Team Strength model can give a significantly more nuanced measure of prowess than simple Win-Loss records.

The probabilistic outcomes - the chance to make the playoffs, win the division, or win the Super Bowl - are based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season and resulting playoffs brackets.

Model last updated: 2025-01-03 23:17 EST

Built by James H. K. Campbell, for a bit of fun